1. Field of the Invention
The present invention generally relates to technology for forecasting the fluctuation of the residual value for a future object. Particularly, the present invention relates to forecasting technology effective when the object comprises an attribute that is able to incorporate plural attribute values.
2. Description of the Related Art
Conventionally, known is a lease system (including rental systems) whereby goods are borrowed and used instead of being actually purchased. Employing the lease system gives lots of advantage to the user, such as leaving the maintenance and management of the goods to the leasing company and reducing initial costs compared with purchasing the same goods. Nowadays, therefore, the lease system is introduced for a wide variety of goods such as automobiles and heavy machinery.
As for the lease system for automobiles etc., ordinarily adopted is a scheme wherein the residual value of the goods at the end of the lease term is estimated at the beginning of the lease and the lease payment is calculated based on such estimated residual value. A scheme based on such type of estimated residual value may be employed for purposes other than the lease system, such as, determining the amount to be loaned on security against goods or programming automobile insurance, etc.
As for the calculation method of the estimated residual value, known is a depreciation method based on the life term of the goods. There is a fixed rate method and a straight-line method regarding the depreciation method, and, for example, if such goods are automobiles, the estimated residual value (future market value) is calculated according to the following formula:Fixed rate method: estimated residual value=acquisition cost×(1-0.319)elapsed yearStraight-line method: estimated residual value=acquisition cost−(acquisition cost×(1- 1/10)×0.166×elapsed year)
Here, it is often the case that the estimated residual value set at the beginning of the lease and the actual residual value at the end of the lease term do not agree, and, in case when the actual residual value is less than the estimated residual value, the balance thereof becomes the loss for the leasing company.
Incidentally, as for goods for which the value decreases with time, a scheme of residual value insurance may be proposed as a method for compensating the loss resulting from fluctuations of the residual value of the future goods. Residual value insurance is an insurance product wherein, when the residual value becomes less than the estimated value at a specific point of time in future, in principle, the balance thereof (=estimated value−actual residual value) will be paid as claim payment.
Under the residual value insurance, there may be a case that when simultaneously leasing a plurality of goods, these plurality of goods collectively form a single group, each of which is covered by the residual value insurance. Such group is referred to as a pool. In this case, the residual value insurance is triggered when the total residual value for each pool becomes less than a specific level.